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Weekly Euro FX Futures Outlook The Euro (E6H26) saw significant volatility last week, capitalizing initially on a broadly weaker Dollar after the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the federal funds target range by 25 basis points (bp) and announced liquidity-boosting short-term bond purchases. This action drove the Dollar Index (DXY00) down to a 1.75-month low. However, Euro gains stalled late in the week as the Dollar found renewed support on Friday, fueled by a sharp selloff in...

Weekly Dollar Index Futures Outlook (DXH26) The Dollar Index (DXY00) spent much of the past week under pressure, driven primarily by the Federal Reserve's dovish decision to cut the federal funds target range by 25 basis points (bp) and announce $40 billion in short-term bond purchases. This action caused the Dollar Index to tumble to a 6-week low and a 1.75-month low mid-week. However, the dollar found slight support toward the end of the week, rising +0.02% on Friday, bolstered by higher...

Weekly Market Outlook: Nasdaq 100 E-Mini Futures (NQZ25) Forward-Looking Bias: Bearish (Correctionary/Risk-Off) 1. Opening Context The Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) closed Friday, November 28th, higher, with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) closing up by +0.78%. This gain was attributed to the optimism for future Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, entering the new trading week (Monday, December 1st), sentiment has reversed dramatically, with December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) pointing to a lower...

Weekly Market Outlook: S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ESZ25) Forward-Looking Bias: Bearish (Correctionary/Risk-Off) 1. Opening Context The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) closed higher on Friday, November 28th, supported by renewed optimism regarding potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. The index futures (ESZ25) entered the new week, Monday, December 1st, facing immediate pressure, pointing to a lower open on Wall Street. This shift is primarily driven by Treasury yields climbing as markets anticipate critical...

Weekly Market Outlook: U.S. Dollar Index (DXZ25) Forward-Looking Bias: Bullish (Counter-trend Reversal/Correction) 1. Opening Context The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY00) ended the previous week under significant pressure, falling to a 1.5-week low on Friday, November 28th. This weakness was driven largely by increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut at next month’s FOMC meeting, with swaps markets discounting an aggressive 83% chance of a cut, up sharply from 30% just one...

📉 S&P 500 Outlook: Specs Press Shorts Into Seasonal Weakness Contract: ESU25 | Week of Sept 1, 2025 🔑 Quick Take Bearish bias into the week. Specs materially increased net shorts while open interest rose—bearish conviction rather than profit-taking. September seasonality is a headwind, and tech leadership faltered. Bulls need a decisive reclaim of last week’s highs to change the tone. 📊 COT & Positioning (as of Aug 26, 2025) Non-Commercials: Net shorts +16,254 contracts — hedge funds pressing...

💵 U.S. Dollar Outlook: Commercials Step In as Seasonals Turn Supportive Contract: DXU25 | Week of Sept 1, 2025 🔑 Quick Take Commercial traders are quietly increasing longs in Dollar Index futures just as seasonal tailwinds kick in for September. While speculative money remains net short, stronger U.S. consumer spending and sticky inflation could lend support. The bias this week tilts slightly bullish, but the Dollar must defend key support near 97.50 to validate a rebound. 📊 COT Breakdown (as...

Futures Market Outlook: COT & Seasonal Analysis 📈 Here is an overall weekly market outlook, highlighting the clearest opportunities across futures markets for the week ahead. By analyzing Commitment of Traders (COT) data, key fundamental news, volume and open interest trends, and seasonality, I've identified markets with the most coherent signals, enabling traders to navigate with informed precision regardless of their directional bias. Ranked Shortlist of Futures Markets for the Week Our...

Natural Gas Futures: Bearish Outlook Amidst Abundant Supply 📈 Natural Gas futures experienced a volatile week, touching new 9-month and 52-week lows before finding some modest recovery towards the end of the trading period. The overall market context remains influenced by strong supply dynamics, which we will analyze through the lens of key data points. Commitment of Traders & Positioning Analysis The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, current as of August 12, 2025, provides crucial...

Weekly Copper Futures Outlook: August 18, 2025 📈 Copper futures experienced an interesting week leading up to the August 12 Commitments of Traders (COT) report, with notable shifts in speculative positioning amidst overall declining open interest. This week's outlook synthesizes key fundamental and positioning data to provide a clear market sentiment. Commitment of Traders (COT) & Positioning Analysis The most recent COT report for Copper- #1 (Code-085692) as of August 12, 2025, reveals a...